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linda sansoneStatistical report October 2008

Too often we want to understand the health of our local real estate, but can only find either raw data or broad statistics which seem disconnected, contradictory, or without explanation. In order to help keep you informed about local areas in an objective way, Premier Magazine will be monitoring the health of different San Diego areas in each edition. In this edition, we revisit Coronado and Downtown San Diego. The other areas we are monitoring: Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, La Jolla, and Solana Beach/Encinitas.

8/6/2013

linda sansoneStatistical report December 2008

Compounding the additional supply has been a reduction in demand (or the number of properties sold). Over this same 12-year period, monthly sales have typically fluctuated between 60 and 80 properties. However, over the last 2 years, monthly sales have dropped to between 40 and 60 properties. This divergence of demand and supply exasperates the over-supply condition. Neither variable means much alone. They must be analyzed in respect to the other. If inventory rises proportionally to the rise in sales, values are supported. It is when one or both of these variables become dislocated from the other that values are susceptible to change.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneStatistical report November 2008

Too often we want to understand the health of our local real estate, but can only find either raw data or broad statistics which seem disconnected, contradictory, or without explanation. In order to help keep you informed about local areas in an objective way, Premier Magazine will be monitoring the health of different San Diego areas in each edition. In this edition, we revisit Coronado and Downtown San Diego. The other areas we are monitoring: Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, La Jolla, and Solana Beach/Encinitas.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneStatistics report January 2009

Over the last 12 years, Coronado (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92118 zip code) has seen its inventory (or the daily average number of properties listed for sale) fluctuate.The ratio of ‘Inventory/Sales’ has gone from a historical trend of 6 to now 17 (with some sharp periodic upward spikes over the last 2 years). Essentially, what this means is that historically for every house sold 6 were for sale. Over the last 2 years, that number has averaged 17 and climbing, nearly a 200% increase.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneStatistics Report March 2009

A quarter ago, we analyzed La Jolla’s real estate market (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92037 zip codes) over a 12-year period. For this analysis, we decided to zoom back in and focus on the most recent 12 months, 2/1/2008 – 1/31/2009, and compare it to the previous 12-month period, 2/1/2007 – 1/31/2008.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneStatistics report February 2009

When comparing 2008 to 2007, two factors remained constant for the Rancho Santa Fe real estate market (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes): inventory increased (Chart B) and sales decreased (Chart D). Contrasting this year-to-year data shows that inventory was on average 10% higher in 2008, while the number of sales was 20% lower (Chart A).


8/6/2013

linda sansoneStatistics Report 2010 Summary

If anything differentiated the 2010 Rancho Santa Fe real estate market



(defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) from 2009, it was an increase in the number of properties sold. In 2009, 148 properties were sold versus 211 in 2010.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2011 Third-Quarter Performance


While two points create a line, a third confirms it. This is what the third quarter of 2011 did for this year’s real estate trend line in Rancho Santa Fe. The first quarter started very promising, outstripping last year’s first-quarter performance. This brought about an excitement and energy that was a breath of fresh air to us all. But then in the second quarter that performance dwindled, flattening the performance to only equal that of the second quarter of 2010. Technically, at this point, we had a slowing market with the drop off from the first quarter.



8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: Chasing the Market

In my last article, “Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate: Discounting Original Listing Price”, I showed how the percentage discount from original list price has increased since the outbreak of the banking crisis in 2007. In this article, I take a deeper dive to examine how the discount rate for Rancho Santa Fe real estate (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) relates to market time.



8/6/2013

linda sansoneRSF Inventory: Then and Now

In order to assess this, we need to look at the percent of monthly sales against the inventory of that respective month. The solid, red line in Chart C plots exactly this calculation and the dashed, red line smooths-out the jagged, solid line by showing the average trendline for those monthly points. As we can see from this trendline, back in 2004, sales-to-inventory peaked at around 11%. Thus, for every 100 properties on the market, you could expect to see 11 sales on a monthly basis.

8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: January – June 2011

 Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) during the first half of 2011 generally has been an improvement over the first half of 2010. However, much of that improvement came from a surge in sales during the first quarter of this year. The second quarter has been about flat relative to last year’s second quarter, but is showing signs of demand weakening.

8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: Inventory Age vs. Seller Motivation

In real estate, just like with any other product-based business, it is important to monitor the age of the inventory. Unfortunately, monitoring real estate inventory age is not as easy as it sounds, since properties are often re-listed several times before they are sold or taken off the market. For example, when you see information like “Days On Market”, it invariably represents only those days for that particular listing. What you do not see are all the other days the property was on the market prior to that listing.

8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: Discounting Original Listing Price

Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate: Discounting Original Listing Price

In my last article, “Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate: Inventory Age vs. Seller Motivation”, I showed how average marketing time in Rancho Santa Fe (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) is invariably and significantly understated, since properties are relisted without incorporating the days on market of their former listing periods. I continue, in this article, by looking at a similar distortion created in pricing.

8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: January 2011 – August 2011

With summer ending and school starting, I thought it was a good time to look back to compare how the Rancho Santa Fe real estate market (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) has performed relative to last year.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneAre All Real Estate Statistics Created Equal?

If everyone is pulling the same initial dataset from the Multiple Listing Service for a given area and time period, how could there be differences between a report coming from Realtor A and another coming from Realtor B? Surprisingly, there can be significant differences, even with basic statistics like Market Time, Sales/Original Listing Price, Number of New Listings, Median Price, etc.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2011 Third-Quarter Performance

Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2011 Third-Quarter Performance



While two points create a line, a third confirms it. This is what the third quarter of 2011 did for this year’s real estate trend line in Rancho Santa Fe. The first quarter started very promising, outstripping last year’s first-quarter performance. This brought about an excitement and energy that was a breath of fresh air to us all. But then in the second quarter that performance dwindled, flattening the performance to only equal that of the second quarter of 2010. Technically, at this point, we had a slowing market with the drop off from the first quarter. Yet, after such a strong first quarter performance, many of us were hoping to see the third quarter summer months redeem the second quarter’s stumble. Unfortunately, the results are in for this third quarter, confirming a weaker market than 2010 and a downward trend.



8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2011 Annual Performance

Overall, real estate in Rancho Santa Fe (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) was softer in 2011 than 2010. Sales were down 2.8%, from 215 properties sold in 2010 to 209 in 2011. Despite median price declining 4.3%, average marketing time for properties sold increased by approximately a month, from 232 days to 260 days. Much of the median price decline came from sellers discounting their original list price more than they had in 2010. The median discount rate from original list price in 2010 was 17% versus 20% in 2011. Consequently, in 2011, despite only slightly fewer properties selling than in 2010, they took longer to sell and with greater discounting.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2012 Q1 Performance

Overall, Rancho Santa Fe real estate (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes as of April 1, 2012) is slightly slower this first quarter of 2012, compared to the first quarter of last year. Specifically, sales are down 14% from 57 properties sold in 2011 Q1 to 49 properties in 2012 Q1.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2012 Performance Summary

When comparing 2011 to 2012, Rancho Santa Fe real estate (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) continues to improve. Actually, the pace of improvement continues to accelerate. 2012 was the strongest recovery year to date.


8/6/2013

linda sansoneRancho Santa Fe Real Estate: 2012 January-July Performance Summary

Overall, Rancho Santa Fe real estate (defined for the purpose of this analysis as all attached and detached residential properties listed with the San Diego Multiple Listing Service for the 92067 and 92091 zip codes) looks stronger this year than last year. Comparing January through July 2011 to the same time period this year, shows that sales have increased 4% while inventory has decreased 20%. For those first seven months of 2011, 138 properties were sold whereas 144 properties in 2012. Average daily inventory was 161 properties in 2011 versus 113 in 2012. The result of this demand/supply change was an 11% increase in median value from $1,850,000 to $2,051,000.


8/6/2013







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